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| 中国OFDI的非正规就业效应研究
摘 要
随着中国经济的不断发展，国际化水平逐步提升，在华外商直接投资与中国对外直接投资规模现已齐头并进。另外一方面，在经济飞速发展的大背景下，中国劳动力市场结构逐渐发生变化，非正规就业人员占比不断提升。当今世界正处于百年未有之大变局，对于中国来说既是挑战又是机遇。中国现如今正处于经济转型之际，就业也更加成为国家重点关注的对象。中国非正规就业群体规模已在就业总规模中占比超过半数，因此，对于中国对外直接投资的非正规就业效应展开研究显然是十分有必要的。在此大背景下，本文将从中国对外直接投资的就业效应出发，在对中国对外直接投资规模以及中国非正规就业的发展现状进行分析论述的基础上，从理论和实证两个方面展开关于中国对外直接投资总量与非正规就业规模之间的关系的研究。一方面，通过理论层面上的分析，本文提出中国对外直接投资总量对于非正规就业规模既具备积极影响也具备消极影响，无论是以直接还是间接的作用途径，中国对外直接投资对其的影响都具有两面性。另外一方面，为了进一步得出中国对外直接投资与非正规就业的关系，本文选取2000-2019共20年的有关数据，通过计量模型得出最终结论，中国对外直接投资对于中国的非正规就业规模的就业创造效应是大于就业替代、挤出效应的。
关键词：对外直接投资；非正规就业；就业效应
Abstract
With the continuous development of China's economy and the gradual improvement of the level of internationalization,the scale of foreign direct investment in China and China's foreign direct investment have gone hand in hand. On the other hand, in the context of rapid economic development,the structure of China's labor market has gradually changed, and the proportion of informal employees has continued to increase. The world today is undergoing major changes unseen in a century, which is both a challenge and an opportunity for China. China is now undergoing economic transformation,and employment has become more of a national focus. The size of China's informal employment group has accounted for more than half of the total employment. Therefore, it is obviously necessary to conduct research on theinformal employment effect of China's foreign direct investment. In this context, this article will start from the employment effect of China’s foreign directinvestment, analyze the scale of China’s foreign direct investment and the development status of China’s informal employment, and expand on China from both theoretical and empirical aspects. Research on the relationship between the total amount of foreign direct investment and the scale of informal employment. On the one hand, through theoretical analysis,this article proposes that China’s total foreign direct investment has both positive and negative impacts on the scale of informal employment. Whether it is in direct or indirect ways,the impact of China’s foreign direct investment on it has two sides. Besides, in order to further derive the relationship between China’s OFDI and informal employment, this paper selects relevant data for 20 years from 2000 to 2019,and draws the final conclusion through the econometric model that China’s OFDI contributes to China’s informal employment scale. The employment creation effect is greater than the employment substitution and crowding-out effect.
Key words: OFDI; informal employment; employment effect
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