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| 珠江口水上交通突发事件管控研究
摘 要
珠江口水域是华南地区水上交通高密度、高流量的区域，位于营运船舶的南北航路、沿海与珠江内河进出航路、珠江内河水域与港澳直航水路的交汇区域，存在多个船舶流量密集区和交汇区，坐拥广州、深圳、香港、东莞、珠海5个亿吨大港，是全球最繁忙的水域之一。在致力于建设海洋强国、把海洋事业做大做强的当下，唯有保障水上交通态势稳中有序，方能推进航运经济持续发展。珠江口水域近几年经历了“天鸽”台风、“山竹”台风、2017年“11·27”碰撞事故、虎门大桥抖动，笔者通过危机管理理论知识的学习，认识到4R模型和有限理性模型对防控工作的重要意义，并且总结历年事故经验及自身工作经历，从人为因素、自然因素等方面对珠江口水上交通突发事件的管控工作进行分析，发现了目前存在的问题与隐患，针对问题进行大胆设想，希望通过成立救助联盟、建立“决策库”，提高政府职能部门应急反应速度，提高航运公司自身安全意识。
【关键词】危机管理；水上交通突发事件；4R模型；有限理性理论模型；决策库
Study on Traffic Emergency Management and Control in Pearl River Estuary
Abstract
The Pearl River estuary is an area with high density and high flow of water traffic in South China.It is located in the intersection area of the north-south route,the coastal and Pearl River access routes, and the Pearl River inland waters and the direct waterway between Hong Kong and Macao. There are many ship flow intensive areas and intersection areas.It is one of the busiest water areas in the world,with 500 million ton ports in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Dongguan and Zhuhai One. At present, we are committed to building a marine power and making the marine industry bigger and stronger. Only by ensuring the stable and orderly water transportation situation can we promote the sustainable development of shipping economy. In recent years, the Pearl River Estuary has experienced typhoon "Pigeon","Shanzhu", "November 27, 2017" collision accident, Humen Bridge shaking. Through learning the theoretical knowledge of crisis management,the author realized the importance of 4R model and bounded rationality model to the prevention and control work,and summarized the accident experience over theyears and his own work experience, from the aspects of human factors, natural factors and so on This paper analyzes the management and control of water traffic emergencies in Jiangkou, finds out the existing problems and hidden dangers, and boldly envisages the problems, hoping to improve the emergency response speed of government functional departments and improve the safety awareness of shipping companies through the establishment of rescue alliance and "decision-making database".
【Keywords】Crisis Management；Maritime Traffic Emergency；4R Model；Bounded Rationality;Decision-making Database
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